Sensitivity of Ensemble Forecast Verification to Model Bias

نویسندگان
چکیده

برای دانلود رایگان متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Providing A Model for Management Earnings Forecast Bias

Despite The Important Role That Management Profit Forecasting Plays In The Decision Making Of Capital Market Actors, These Predictions Appear To Be Biased. In The Attempt To Measure The Bias Of Predicting Profit Management, Numerous One- Dimensional Measurement Tools Have Been Proposed In The Accounting And Finance Literature. Despite These Efforts, No Comprehensive Composite Index Has Been Dev...

متن کامل

The Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Circular Variables and its Application to Mesoscale Forecast Ensemble Verification

An analogue of the linear continuous ranked probability score is introduced that applies to probabilistic forecasts of circular quantities. This scoring rule is proper and thereby discourages hedging. The circular continuous ranked probability score reduces to angular distance when the forecast is deterministic, just as the linear continuous ranked probability score generalizes the absolute err...

متن کامل

verification of mm5 forecast precipitation over iran

during the last several years, application of numerical weather prediction models in the country have become common in both research and operations, even though systematic verification of the models’ results using statistical methods has rarely been conducted (sodoudi et al. 2009). this paper aims at comparing the mm5 24-hour precipitation forecasts with the corresponding observations using sta...

متن کامل

Probabilistic forecast verification

Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back Close Full Screen / Esc Papers published in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions are under open-access review for the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abstract Introduction Conclusions References Tables Figures Back Close Full Screen / Esc Abstract In the present paper we describe some methods for verifying and evalua...

متن کامل

NOTES AND CORRESPONDENCE Extending the Limits of Ensemble Forecast Verification with the Minimum Spanning Tree

Uncertainty in the initial condition is one of the factors that limits the utility of single-model-run predictions of even deterministic nonlinear systems. In practice, an ensemble of initial conditions is often used to generate forecasts with the dual aims of 1) estimating the reliability of the forecasts and 2) estimating the probability distribution of the future state of the system. Current...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Weather Review

سال: 2018

ISSN: 0027-0644,1520-0493

DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-17-0223.1